Probabilistic Reasoning

Class and subject schedule

Check this page regularly, for the overview of subjects may be updated during the course.

The following preliminary table lists:

the lectures and other meetings, together with their topics
what you are expected to prepare for a meeting
the literature (syllabus chapters, or other explicitly indicated sources from the literature page); it is advisable to read this prior to the lecture
the relevant self-assessment exercises from the syllabus; you are expected to do these right after class so you can ask questions about them at the next meeting

The corresponding lecture slides and (some) 🎦 videos can be found on the literature page. Material between [..]-brackets is only touched upon briefly and not part of the course assessment.

The scheduled times and locations for the lectures and exams can be found in MyTimetable. Since the lecturers cannot directly update MyTimetable, deviations from the official schedule will be indicated in the schedule below, which is always most up-to-date.

Week 1 (36)

Wed, Sept 6

NO CLASS: Master introduction

Fri, Sept 8

Subject: course introduction, probability theory

Literature: Ch. 1, Ch. 2 (from Syllabus)

Exercises: 1.1, 1.2, 2.1 - 2.4 (from Syllabus) + start working on Practical assignments (on Blackboard)! (Can't find partner? Try Blackboard forum.)

Week 2 (37)

Wed, Sept 13

NO CLASS: SELF-STUDY(!!) with the help of these videos: 🎦 Ch2, 🎦 Ch3.1. Also: don't forget to prepare for next Friday's class (see below)

Preparation: make sure you have covered Ch 2. including notation blocks

Subject: Probability and Independence relations

Literature:Ch. 2, Ch. 3: § 3.1

Exercises: 2.5, 2.6, 3.1 - 3.4

Fri, Sept 15

Preparation: Ch. 3: § [3.2.1] may be helpful to read or 🎦 watch; if you have questions about Ch.2 or Ch. 3: § 3.1 please ask them at the beginning of the lecture.

Subject: Graphical models

Literature: Ch. 3: § 3.2.2, 3.2.3

Exercises: [3.5, 3.6], 3.7-3.14

Week 3 (38)

Wed, Sept 20

Preparation: read literature in advance

Subject: Introduction to inference

Literature: Ch. 4: § 4.1

Exercises: 4.1, 4.2, 4.8

Fri, Sept 22

Deadline Assignment A (directly after class)

Preparation: read Ch. § 4.2.1 including notation block

Subject: Inference in singly connected graphs (SCGs) and trees

Literature: Ch. 4: § 4.2.1, § 4.2.2

Exercises: 4.3 - 4.7

Directly after class: 🎦review proofs for computation rules and try Exercises 4.4a and 4.5a. It is really important to do these exercises!

Week 4 (39)

Wed, Sept 27

Preparation: read § 4.2.3

Subject: Examples in SCGs; intro to inference in multiply connected graphs (MCGs)

Literature: Ch. 4: § 4.2.1, § 4.2.2, § 4.2.3

Exercises: 4.9, 4.10, 4.13

Afterwards: really practice the exercises!

[Optional: additional slides for those interested in Junction Tree propagation]

Fri, Sept 29

Preparation: read § 4.2.3

Subject: Loop cutsets

Literature: Ch. 4: § 4.2.3

Exercises: 4.11, 4.12, 4.14

Week 5 (40)

Wed, Oct 4

Deadline Assignment B (directly after class)

Preparation: read literature below in advance. To understand the relation between BNs and PP also consider these ProbAI 2023 slides.

Subject: Probabilistic programming, part I (continuous models)

Literature: BDA3-Ch1 up to and including § 1.7

Fri, Oct 6

Preparation: read literature in advance

Subject: Probabilistic programming, part II

Literature: RR04 up to and including § 3.2 (skim the rest)

Week 6 (41)

Wed, Oct 11

Subject: Probabilistic programming, part III

Literature: Same as above

Fri, Oct 13

Double slot! First a lecture, then a Stan practical

Preparation: read §5.1, §5.2.1

Subject: Graph construction

Literature: Ch. 5: §5.1, §5.2.1 and § 5.2.2

Exercises: 5.1-5.3, 5.4a

Preparation: 🎦watch the following videos from the playlist of this Stan tutorial: 1 or 2 (depending on yur choice for R or Python), and 3--7

Subject: Practical session probabilistic programming

Software: Getting started with RStan; for this you will need to install RStan

Week 7 (42)

Wed, Oct 18

Preparation: read the literature

Subject: construction cntd

Literature: Ch. 5: § 5.2.2 and § 5.3.1

Exercises:5.4b, 5.7, 5.8

Fri, Oct 20

Preparation:read the literature

Subject:Probability elicitation; Noisy-or gate

Literature: Ch. 5: § 5.3.1, 5.3.2, 5.3.3

Exercises:5.4cd, 5.9, 5.11

Week 8 (43)

Wed, Oct 25

Double slot, starting at 1pm! First coaching, then a lecture.

Preparation: your questions about assignment C

Subject: practical session: coaching for assignment C

Preparation: read the literature

Subject: Probability elicitation methods, Sensitivity Analysis

Literature:Ch. 5: § 5.3.3 and § 5.3.4, Ch. 6: § 6.1.1

Exercises:5.5, 5.6, 5.10, 6.1a-d, 6.2ab, 6.7

Fri, Oct 27

Preparation: read Ch. 6: § 6.1.2

Preparation: read the literature

Subject: Sensitivity Analysis cntd

Literature: Ch. 6: 6.1.2, § 6.1.3

Exercises:6.1ef, 6.2cde, 6.3-6.6

Week 9 (44)

Wed, Nov 1

Deadline Assignment C (directly after class)

Subject: Evaluation; BNs as problem-solving architectures

Literature: Ch 6: § 6.2, 6.3

Exercises: 6.8

Fri, Nov 3

Preparation: prepare your final questions

Subject: Explanation; wrap-up; Q & A session

Literature: Ch 6: § 6.4; Ch. 7

[Optional: SUM 2022 presentation on explanation and Jordy van Leersum's short explanation demo]

Week 10 (45)

Wed/Fri Nov 8/11 (check MyTimetable!)

Written test ('Tentamen')

January 2024

(check MyTimetable!)

Substitute test ('Tentamen: aanvullende toets')
Substitute tests for the masters courses will (probably) be scheduled in week 3, in the late afternoon/evening. Once scheduled, exams will appear in MyTimetable; this is also the source of information for the lecturers.)