Probabilistic Reasoning

Examination and grading

This course is awarded 7.5 ECTS upon passing. We therefore expect you to invest a total of approximately 210 hours, which means that apart from attending classes you are required to spend around 20 hours a week(!) on preparing and evaluating classes, working on the practical assignments, making exercises, and preparing for the exam.

The course will be graded based on practical assignments and a written exam. To pass the course, a final grade of at least 6 on a scale from 1 to 10 is required (for interpretation, see the Dutch grading system).

Final grades will be registered in OSIRIS; partial grades will be communicated through Blackboard's gradecenter.

Practical assignments

The practical assignments are homework assignments, each consisting of a number of questions and exercises, partly to be answered using a Bayesian network software tool and partly through probabilistic programming. It is important to take the practical assignments seriously, since the assignments cannot be re-taken, while the re-examination conditions for the course (see below) include a constraint on their overall result.

The practical assignments are done in pairs and we assume that both partners contribute equally to the submitted answers to each and every question. To demonstrate comprehension, answers are formulated in your own words, even if other sources (physical or digital) have been consulted. Additional sources or tools used are of course explicitly cited.

To enable fair assessment of your skills and understanding, submitted assignments cannot contain answers copied from someone else, or somewhere else, without due acknowledgement of the sources or tools used -- this is fraud or plagiarism. Committing fraud or plagiarism can have dire consequences. This also holds for anyone who knowingly and willfully enables fraud or plagiarism (i.e. by posting solutions, leaving them lying around or on screen, etc). See Art. 5.14 - fraud and plagiarism of the Education and Examination Regulations (OER) of the Graduate School of Natural Sciences.

Written test ('tentamen')

To pass the course, you are required to take the written test, which assumes an in-depth understanding of and insight in the subjects treated. Details of what is expected of you can be found in the studymanual. A link to former tests can be found on the assignments page (under exercises); note that most exercises in the syllabus are also former exam questions!

The exact date, time and location of the test can be found in MyTimetable.
The test is 'closed-book', i.e. you cannot use the syllabus, slides or any digital sources during the test. However, you are allowed to bring a 'cheat-sheet', under the following conditions. The 'cheat-sheet' is:

• personally constructed, and hand-written
• a single piece of A4 paper, single or double sided
• shown or handed in after the test

Note that Pearl's formulas will always be provided with the test (see an example of the formulasheet you will receive with your test).

You are strongly advised to bring a calculator to the test (no mobile phone, tablet/laptop computer etc!).

Grading

• The practical homework assignments A-C, if handed in on time, will be marked on a 5-point scale as 'poor', 'insufficient', 'sufficient', 'good' or 'excellent'; assignments which are not handed in (on time) will be marked with a 0.
• The written test, if taken, will be marked on a scale from 1 to 10 .


• The overall mark for the practical assignments (PM) is determined as follows:
  1. apply the following mapping to the obtained marks:

            poor → 1, insufficient → 2, sufficient → 3, good → 4, excellent → 5

  2. compute a weighted sum of the results: 0.6*(mark A + mark B) + 0.8*mark C


• The practical assignment mark PM and the mark TM for the written test are combined into an overall assessment grade AM as follows:

          AM = 0.20 PM + 0.80 TM

• The final mark (FM) registered in Osiris is established in accordance with the Education and Examination Regulations (OER) of the Graduate School of Natural Sciences (Art. 5.4 - Marks) (this also explains the meaning of the alpha-numerical marks):

  • failure to take the written test will result in an alpha-numerical final mark:
    • 'AANV' (=repair), if the written test is missed, but sufficient effort is put in the practical assignments, demonstrated by having obtained at least two practical assignment marks that are at least 'sufficient';
    • 'ND' (='NP': not participated), if the written test is missed and none of the practical assignments was handed in;
    • 'NVD' (='NC': not completed), otherwise
  • FM =   5,   if 4.95 ≤ AM < 5.5;
              6,   if 5.5 ≤ AM < 6.05;
              AM rounded to a single decimal, otherwise.

Re-examination conditions for substitute tests

The practical assignments cannot be re-taken.

You qualify for a second attempt at the written test ('aanvullende toets'), if either of the following conditions is met:

• after the first attempt you received the alpha-numerical mark 'AANV', or
• after the first attempt you received a non-passing final mark FM (FM < 6) of at least 4, and at least two practical assignment marks are at least 'sufficient';

(also see Art. 5.5 - Remediation: additional or substitute tests of the Education and Examination Regulations (OER) of the Graduate School of Natural Sciences)

Note that the re-examinations are in January; the exact date, time and location will appear in MyTimetable.